BROOKINGS When it comes to weather and climate in South Dakota, the go-to pro is Laura Edwards, South Dakota State University Extension state climatologist based in Aberdeen.
In a telephone interview with The Brookings Register on Wednesday, she took a look back at what was in 2023 and what could be in 2024 weather-wise. Not surprisingly, since South Dakota is a key agricultural state, a major topic for discussion came down to one word: precipitation.
For the year to date, the Brookings County area has received 17.78 inches of precipitation, in the form of rain and the water equivalent of melted snow. The average for a year is 25.21 inches. So at present the area is 7.43 inches below average for the year.
That certainly reflects a lot of the dry conditions we saw, over the summer especially, Edwards said. We were lingering dry, various degrees of drought up and down throughout the season, the year even. The key to the drought in the Brookings area was September, where we had about 80 percent of the county in drought.
November was the driest month, with only .08 inches of moisture, in contrast to October, which was the wettest month with 3.54 inches, she explained. October is not typically the wettest month. Usually thats earlier in the spring-summer season, May, June, July, around there.
The climatologist noted that year-to-date, 2023 is the 34th driest out of 130 years: No record, but slightly on the dry side for historical comparisons.
Turning to temperatures (Fahrenheit), Edwards noted that for the whole year, average temperatures were 3.2 degrees warmer than the long-term average for a year, which is 45.5 degrees.
We had quite a mix of months that were either above or below average, Edwards noted. But December really is coming in with the big gangbuster end to the year. Were running 11 degrees above average for the month of December so far. Thats head and shoulders above other months. A couple months were about 5 degrees above average. But being 11 degrees above average is really quite exceptional. The remaining days of December will likely continue to have higher than average temps.
She added that snowfall so far this season at about 1.1 inches of snow, well below average 42.2 inches of snowfall last winter. The area received 14.4 inches of snow in December 2022.
Tipping point in spring
Looking out to 2024, Edwards sees: Certainly in the remaining part of the winter season, El Nino being a pretty strong factor in our climate. (N.B. (Wikipedia) El Nino in simple terms to above-average sea-surface temps across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.) That typically means warmer than average temperatures, such as weve seen in December. It looks like that trend is likely to continue through the remaining winter season.
Not to say that we wont have some cold periods, she added. We almost always get some kind of cold snap at some point in the winter. But overall, were looking at warmer temperatures through March.
Continuing, the climatologist noted that precipitation is a bit more challenging. El Nino by itself does not tell us a whole lot, leaning wetter or drier in the winter season. So we dont have a lot to lean on. Right now we have equal chances of wetter, drier or near average for precipitation through the winter season.
One thing we do see in El Nino winters, in the eastern part of South Dakota anyway, is usually less snowfall than typical. A lot of that is due to the warmer temperatures, such as this event we just saw here in the last few days, where weve had really more rain than snow in some areas; the temperatures have been so warm. Total precipitation is still a tossup at this point. I would venture to say, however, that well have less snowfall for the season overall.
Edwards did note that some modeling has hinted that a polar vortex cold be out there in the future of this winter maybe in late January. But how cold is indeterminate and if and when that happens, it would be followed by more warm weather.
And could that be followed by drought-like conditions? Theres always that potential, the climatologist explained. We are kind of carrying over some drier conditions in the soil. Thats one thing I look at in the winter season to kind of anticipate where were going to start off in the spring.
Because November was so dry, we lost some moisture; so we had no snow cover to keep it in. Our soils are not frozen, so we could lose some moisture at this point. I would say were in decent shape, adequate maybe is the word. The last few days could help in the spring. But it would be nice if we had some freezing to lock it in.
She added: We will need some of that spring moisture. Were at a tipping point; we could go up or down. Right now in Brookings County, we are carrying a little bit of drought, especially in the eastern side of the county. I think were OK for the start of farming, but we could use a little more moisture as we get into that spring season.
Looking back, in a brief summation, Edwards noted that the Brookings County area had a very quiet year for severe weather.
Contact John Kubal at [email protected].
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