The One Big Beautiful (Bad) Bill (BBB) became law on July 4, accompanied with great fanfare including a White House flyover. We now wait to discover what the real macroeconomic and individual impacts of the bill will be.
Americans paying attention are generally aware of the BBB-continued and new tax cuts and the $1.2 trillion reduction in Medicaid, Affordable Care Act and SNAP spending, impacting our poorest citizens. Recent polls have revealed that BBB-informed Americans disapprove of BBB by nearly a 2-1 margin but nearly one-third of those polled revealed little understanding of BBB.
While approximately two-thirds of Americans polled revealed some understanding of BBB, fewer Americans know that 80% of the tax cuts will benefit only the wealthiest 10% of U.S. taxpayers. Stated another way, 90% of us could have enjoyed continued and new tax cuts at 20% of the tax revenue cost of BBB.
Fewer of us know that the dramatic BBB Medicaid spending reductions have been postponed until after the 2026 midterm election to spare GOP House and Senate candidates any potential blowback. Fewer of us know that the new BBB $6,000 tax deduction for those over 65 and meeting certain income requirements will be phased out at the end of Trumps term of office.
Fewer of us know Medicaid and SNAP participation is projected to decline by 10 million to 12 million people, largely because of new BBB onerous semi-annual documented reporting requirements rather than new work requirements. Fewer of us know that BBB will increase the ICE detention centers budget beyond the U.S. Prison Bureau budget and Homeland Security will now have a law enforcement budget that exceeds the budgets of all other federal law enforcement entities combined. Fewer of us know that the 1934 National Firearms Act tax and registration requirement on sawed off shotguns, machine guns, and short rifles has been stricken by BBB so more of us can own these weapons free of regulation.
Fewer of us know that with evidence of climate change impacting us daily, BBB has defunded wind, solar and other green energy research and development incentives while offering new incentives for mining and consuming coal and other fossil sources of energy. Most of us, including many members of the U.S. House and Senate, will never know what else is concealed in the 900-plus page BBB.
Trump and the Republican controlled House and Senate have insisted that BBB will result in a huge stimulus to the economy and generate new tax revenue to offset the revenue lost to the tax cut while leading economists project BBB itself will add $4 trillion to $5 trillion to our $36.2 trillion national debt over the next 10 years. We are again being asked to embrace trickle-down economics that failed under presidents Reagan, GW Bush and Trump.
Traditional American conservatives who embrace fiscal responsibility as their creed find little solace in BBB.
In a very real sense, GOP lawmakers and the White House have created a bit of a political quagmire with BBB. Unless 10-12 million Medicaid, ACA, and SNAP recipients lose benefits, the government revenue cost of BBB will be higher than the $4-5 trillion cost projected by leading economists.
Yet, our Congressional delegation insists that the number of persons who will lose these benefits will be limited only to healthy able-bodied persons, thus falling far short of the 10-12 million persons projection.
Again, only time will reveal the full economic, social and political consequences of BBB. In the meantime, we must all ponder the morality of a once-in-a-generation policy that rewards the wealthiest among us at the expense of our lowest-income citizens.
Leave a Reply