I was a confident Vice President Harris supporter the day before the Nov. 5 election. With the polls showing a very tight race, I believed she would win a commanding majority vote from women and that women would vote at a higher percentage than men.
I was confident that the Harris campaign had a superior get-out-the-vote organization compared to Trump. I believed that the Trump campaign directed almost exclusively to his MAGA base with the exception of attempting to appeal to young Hispanic, White and Black males would flop because of the past low voter turnout in that demographic. Finally, I was convinced the American voter would not re-elect Donald Trump with all his character flaws, his failure as president during the pandemic, his racist and misogynistic words and actions, his criminal convictions and indictments and his attempted coup on Jan. 6, 2021.
Obviously, I was wrong on all counts. Such is the fate of those of us who attempt to predict the behavior of our fellow humans.
A majority of female voters did support Harris, but not at the level anticipated. The Harris get-out-the-vote effort was not particularly effective and was met with social media and a number of popular podcasts favoring Trump. The MAGA base turned out in numbers meeting expectations and young Hispanic, White and Black voters voted at a higher percentage than past election patterns would suggest. Finally, a majority of the American voters were willing to overlook former President Trumps many faults and they cast their votes for him.
The final numbers are yet to be announced, but it appears Trump is on track to equal or slightly exceed his 2020 vote while Harris will fall 10 million votes or more short of Bidens 2020 vote.
Millions of discontented 2020 Biden supporters stayed home, voted for minor party candidates or left the presidential choice blank.
The so called expert post-election analysis is greatly varied in content and focus. As a political scientist, I identify the election as a retrospective election. Voters expressed unhappiness, if not anger, with the Biden Administration represented by Vice-President Harris. President Bidens 39% approval rating is evidence of the level of dissatisfaction. In our dominant two-party system, a majority of the voters supported the only alternative to Harris, with all his faults, who might bring change.
Exit polls suggest the primary causes of discontent included the economy and immigration. While current leading US economic indicators are positive, the price spike of 2021 brought on by supply chain issues, a pent-up surge in consumer spending, significant increase in federal spending and corporate greed continues to haunt the American consumer. While the crisis at the border has been tamed, the scenes of thousands of migrants overwhelming our border security remain fresh in our minds and Trump placed an emphasis on demonizing all migrants.
The reasons for supporting former President Trump, beyond displeasure with the Biden/Harris Administration, are many and varied including party loyalty, Christian Nationalism zeal, desired business and industry protections, appreciation of Trumps renegade behavior and sincerely felt economic pain. With regard to the last item, I am reminded of the feeling of struggling Americans when I listen to the lyrics of Jelly Rolls hit song I Am Not OK. For the sake of brevity, I encourage readers to Google it. Both parties must address the plight of far too many Americans who have been left behind in an economy which continues to disproportionately reward the wealthy and leaves the middle class and low-income Americans to struggle with limited rewards for their work and the reality of high prices for basic necessities.
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