Now that South Dakotas 2024 general election is in the books, its time to take a deep breath and step away from politics for a few months to regroup, right?
Well, not quite.
Attention is already turning to 2026, when South Dakota will elect a new governor as well as hold races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House and constitutional offices such as attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer.
News Watch co-sponsored a poll in October to assess the favorability ratings of South Dakotas top office-holders, assessing their popularity with an eye toward future political moves, whether in Washington or Pierre.
The statewide survey of 500 registered voters was also sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota. It was conducted by Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy on Oct. 12-16, a few weeks before Republican Donald Trump defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to return to the White House.
With the presidential race settled, some moves involving South Dakota politicians could happen quickly.
News Watch spoke to candidates, consultants and political science professors to analyze how polling data and 2024 election results could impact the futures of South Dakota politicians.
Gov. Kristi Noem
- Favorable: 48%/Unfavorable: 40%
- Neutral: 12%/Dont recognize: 0%
- Total war chest: $3,242,602
The second-term governor monitored election results as closely as anyone, knowing that a Trump victory could possibly send her back to Washington as a member of the Republican administration.
Noem helped celebrate the victory at Mar-a-Lago, Trumps resort in Palm Beach, Florida, reinforcing the notion that she is anxious to join the transition before the South Dakota legislative session begins in Pierre.
Her popularity numbers have recovered somewhat from her ill-fated book launch last spring, marred by revelations about killing an unruly family hunting dog and fabricating a meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
Noems favorability was underwater in a May poll co-sponsored by News Watch, at 39% favorable and 48% unfavorable, a significant dip from October 2020, when she came in at 52% favorable and 24% unfavorable.
This latest poll has her favorability at 48%, equal to Trump and Thune in South Dakota. But Noem still has a much higher unfavorable rating (40%) than any other South Dakota politician in the survey.
Her net favorability in the survey was plus-8, well behind non-MAGA delegation members Rep. Dusty Johnson (plus-27) and Thune (plus-24).
But Noem was viewed as favorable by 76% of Republican respondents, compared to 57% for Thune and 52% for Johnson, both of whom also had higher neutral or no opinion responses.
Sen. John Thune
- Favorable: 48%/Unfavorable: 24%
- Neutral: 20%/Dont recognize: 8%
- Total war chest: $16,735,389
Thune was not on the 2024 ballot but attended Johnsons victory party on the top floor of the Holiday Inn City Centre in Sioux Falls, relishing the presidential returns and hobnobbing with party regulars.
The 63-year-old Murdo native offered remarks on Johnsons re-election but left before Johnson took the stage. He was headed to the Hilton Garden Inn a few blocks away to make phone calls to new Republican senators who won their races, including Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Jim Justice in West Virginia.
The goal was to build more support for the Senate majority leader vote, 20 years after Thune ignited his political brand by knocking off Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle in their momentous 2004 clash in South Dakota.
In the News Watch poll, Thune has roughly the same favorability as Noem (48%) without the baggage of a bungled book launch or MAGA-style rhetoric. His unfavorable number (24%) is 16 points lower than the Republican governor.
Rep. Dusty Johnson
- Favorable: 42%/Unfavorable: 15%
- Neutral: 40%/Dont recognize: 3%
- Total war chest: $5,586,138
After winning re-election with 72% of the vote against Democrat Sheryl Johnson, Dusty Johnson told supporters that he would focus on securing the border, fighting inflation, and reducing spending and regulation.
Lets never forget that this country was not built on anger and fear, said the fourth-term congressman. This country was built on courage and imagination and optimism and freedom.
Powerful words from a 48-year-old Pierre native who is amassing funds and political support to take the next step in his career and run for South Dakota governor in 2026.
Some data points are in Johnsons favor as he pursues that lifelong goal, while others are viewed as vulnerabilities.
Jon Schaff, a political science professor at Northern State University in Aberdeen, noted that Johnson (72%) had a higher vote share than Trump (62%) in South Dakota in 2024, though clearly in a less competitive race.
Johnsons unfavorable rating of 15% is the lowest of South Dakotas congressional delegation, though 40% of poll respondents have a neutral view of the congressman.
Dustys brand of conservative and competent has broad appeal, said Schaff. Once again, his biggest challenges are within his own party, not across the state as a whole.
Johnsons 51% approval among Republicans in the poll lags in comparison to Noem (76%) and Trump (72%), opening him up to a likely primary challenge from the hard right.
Sen. Mike Rounds
- Favorable: 36%/Unfavorable: 25%
- Neutral: 34%/Dont recognize: 5%
- Total war chest: $2,194,290
Rounds, a second-term senator who is up for re-election in 2026, was viewed favorably by 36% of statewide respondents in the October poll, compared to 24% unfavorable.
The tepid nature of those numbers is underscored by the fact that 34% of respondents were neutral toward Rounds, who has embraced his role in Washington while forsaking the partisan firestorms of Noem and the leadership ambitions of Thune.
Political observers noted that if Rounds is going to defend his Senate seat against a Republican primary challenge, hes going to have to get more assertive about what he stands for and why he deserves to continue to represent South Dakota interests.
The general consensus is that the 70-year-old Rounds, who has never lost an election, would not be afraid to roll up his shirtsleeves at least one more time.
He has not totally ruled out running for governor as a means of returning home to Pierre, where he served as a state legislator and was South Dakota governor from 2003-2011. His wife, Jean, died of cancer in 2021, but he has grandchildren back home.
Attorney General Marty Jackley
- Favorable: 28%/Unfavorable: 13%
- Neutral: 36%/Dont recognize: 24%
- Total war chest: $469,543
Jackley is well-known in South Dakotas political and legal community but has some work to do with average voters if he plans to run for higher office again.
The News Watch poll showed that 24% of respondents didnt recognize his name, despite the fact that the former U.S. attorney has twice served as attorney general and ran for governor in 2018, losing in the Republican primary to Noem.
Jackleys favorability was 42%, but 40% were neutral and just 13% unfavorable, meaning he has room to grow as the 2026 election cycle takes shape.
Another run for governor is a distinct possibility, though Jackley told News Watch that right now Im focused on being the best attorney general I can be for South Dakotans and doing the job South Dakotans elected me to do.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit news organization. Contact investigative reporter Stu Whitney at [email protected].
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