BROOKINGS South Dakota State will look for its second straight national championship when it battles Montana in the FCS National Championship Game in Frisco, Texas on Jan. 7.
To preview this matchup, Register sports editors Chris Schad and Andrew Holtan sat down and discussed the big game and gave their final predictions to see who will walk out of Frisco as national champions.
Chris Schad: So the Jacks are going back to Frisco. I dont know about you, but I think Jackrabbits fans could have booked their accommodations in July and still wouldnt have had to worry about if they were going to make it. Was there ever a question in your mind that the Jacks were going to make it back to the national title game?
Andrew Holtan: I would say there was a question after that after the Montana State game. I thought they would win that game more convincingly and they won after a touchdown was overturned on the final play. But after that not really. I think going into the [South Dakota] gamethat was kind of the game where you saw that the gap between SDSU and the rest of the field is significant.
CS: That game was pretty funny because SDSU didnt score in the first quarter and the Jacks scored 37 straight points and left them in the dust. But that Montana State game was honestly the biggest challenge theyve had all year but its not like they played bad teams. The Missouri Valley Football Conference had six playoff teams and SDSU beat all of them.
AH: Yeah they went on a streak where they beat six ranked teams in the MVFC and none of those games were even close. Theyve only won by less than 10 points in two of their games. Its like theyre impossible to totally defeat.
CS: When you look at Montana, is there anything about the Grizzlies that concerns you going into this game?
AH: I would say its going to be a battle of special teams and turnovers. If Montana can win those two phases of the game, theyll have a chance. I dont think theyll win the game because SDSU has only lost the turnover battle twice. One of those games was against Drake and they won 70-7. The other was Missouri State and they won 35-17. Montana is 10th in turnover margin, so that could play a factor.
CS: Looking at Montanas offense, I really like their skill position players. Clifton McDowell has been really good at quarterback and they have two really good receivers in Keelan White (50 catches, 779 yards, 4 TD) and Junior Bergen (55 catches, 766 yards, 5 TD). Their backfield has three guys with at least 600 rushing yards and eight touchdowns as well as Eli Gillman (187 carries, 950 yards, 12 TD) won the Jerry Rice Award as the nations top freshman and Nick Ostmo (126 carries, 637 yards, 8 TD) has been solid as well. Their only issue is that theyve been inconsistent in the playoffs and thats a problem against SDSUs defense.
AH: Yeah, especially in the Furman game. That should have been a game where if Furman is on the Jacks level, thats a game where you win by three touchdowns instead of winning in overtime.
CS: The red zone matchup is another one that Im interested in. Montanas defense is 21st in the nation holding opponents to a .743 scoring percentage in the red zone and the Jacks lead the nation with a .963 scoring percentage on offense. 43 of their 52 red zone scores are touchdowns, so if Montana can hold them to field goals, they might have a chance.
AH: That would be huge for Montana but thats a hard thing to do. On the flip side, I dont think SDSUs red zone defense gets credit. Theyre No. 1 in the nation in scoring percentage (.594) and I feel like theres been countless times this year where a team gets inside the [five-yard line] and you think theyre going to score a touchdown and instead, they get a field goal and its a different game. It happened against Villanova when the Jacks were up 17-9. They held Villanova to a field goal and Isaiah Davis breaks a long run and thats all she wrote.
CS: What do you think the atmosphere is going to be like in Frisco?
AH: I think its going to be a great atmosphere, but I think it will be about 60 percent Jackrabbit fans because like you said, a lot of people should have booked their trips before the allotted tickets came out. But Montana has a great fan base too so I think it will be just as good of an atmosphere as it was last year. That being said, whats your prediction for the game?
CS: I think what really grabbed my attention coming in was the way they dominated UAlbany in the national semifinals. If they had won by two scores, it may have been a battle in Frisco. Theyre going to play a Montana who is also really good and its going to be a fun game. But the way SDSU took the field and how locked in they were with that energy in the crowdit just felt like this team was destined to win a national title. If this game were in Missoula, the Grizzlies might have had a chance because that atmosphere is awesome but so many fans are going to travel down I-29, wind up in Frisco and have another day in the office. I think SDSU wins 42-10. Thats not a slight to the Grizzlies, thats just how good the Jacks are.
AH: I think the other thing that people havent talked about is the experience factor. This is the third time in the last four years the Jacks are going to Frisco and its a totally different experience than your game-by-game scenario. You get three weeks off and have the hype around your whole team going down there. Once you get down there, its not like everything is focused on football. You have to do a whole media circus and some fan-fest stuff. Montana hasnt been there since 2009, so I think the fact that every one of these starters on SDSU has played in this game before, I think that leans very heavily toward the Jacks because its not a normal experience. Im going 37-17.
CS: If SDSU wins, does that make them a dynasty? Only five teams have won back-to-back national championships in FCS history, so I think they have to be up there.
AH: Its such a tough thing to do. NDSU is the measuring stick for winning nine titles in 11 years but I think this SDSU team would be one of the best teams of all time. I think theyd have to win another one in the next three years to be a dynasty, but we could look back 10 years from now and nobody would be upset.
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